The National Hurricane Center (NHC) tracks all tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins. Afterwards, a tropical cyclone report is prepared which includes a best track table. This table contains center positions, minimum central pressure and maximum 1-min 10-m wind speed, every...
In 2008, the NHC and CPHC began computing the intensity probabilities from a set of 1,000 realizations, or alternate tracks and intensities, that vary around the official forecast based on a Monte Carlo sampling of historical errors in the NHC and CPHC track and intensity forecasts. The Monte...